I am not really into whats going on in the strat but do realize its importance looking long term in winter predictions. I am more of the old school type looking for weather ahead and more interested in a medium term outlook. Looks like a break now in the weather with sunny but cold days to come over here. Aye, been busy digging my home out of piled up snow. Morning Matt,do you feel that a possible Scandinavian high is more likely to occur than a Greenland high as we head into March. As things stand, it is the former that is far more likely than the latter, overall, for March this year IMO. It is, however, that time of year when the lovers of cold and warm can increasingly disagree - March for the UK can be a long drawn out month, one of my least favourite months/periods of the year, some hoping for late cold, others longing for some mild days and sunshine and daffodils. Still, from everything I've seen then the overall outlook which continues to be highlighted already is the one that is most likely to play out - High builds in this weekend, lingers, but with then all eyes on the main tPV leaving NE Canada and Greenland being 'sucked' eastwards towards the Russian side of the pole and with blocking patterns and retrogression taking place as the first half of March progresses with more of a N or NE'ly more likely, than a very cold E or SE'ly as things stand. Obviously, the finer details will determine whether the outcome is a watered-down mess, or something more significant, we have to take into account that this will be March too, not January and that aspect needs to adding to the equation when looking at potential air masses and intensity of any cold.

However, with the MJO passage of 4-5-6-7 and now likely 8 all part of the tropospheric processes, then coupled with the strat, from a UK perspective we can't ask much more in terms of a solid foundation for blocking patterns. This second warming event though which has only really been properly modelled over the last week or so, is still potentially the 'deal breaker' for significant trop changes, but not until further into March - Patience is, as ever, required even though I can see why that is now running out, mine too to an extent. We are already seeing interesting synoptics appear in medium and long-term data and particularly from the overnight EC46 which is really noteworthy, IMO.

We've seen this setup a handful of times in recent years through Jan and Feb with high pressure near or just to the south of the British Isles, etc - Will this become a problem towards summer or, as is often seemingly possible, the weather balances itself out? - Time will tell on that one as the month's tick by, but ENSO Neutral conditions usually, for the UK mean a potentially volatile summer setup, often driven by the MJO which is usually more pronounced in ENSO neutral conditions too.īack to the hear and now and regarding the above, I think some are being too quick to expect quick trop changes. Despite more of a +ve NAO pattern of late, we continue to see below or well below average rainfall totals and that trend is clearly not likely to change. Obviously, European blocking patterns have always been present, but usually across Spain, France, Italy, Central Europe, etc, in the winter period, leaving the UK at the mercy of the usual Atlantic storms. The winter has evolved in something of an unusual way, especially since the week of colder weather in mid-January, with sub-tropical blocking patterns often in evidence, this definitely seems to becoming more of a frequent occurrence of the UK and European winters. This is a key post so far today, and the last couple of days too. My thinking is that the models will not necessarily handle the next phase of reversal and it’s affect on the trop well until we get closer to it and that it is more than likely that we see bigger retrogression in the trop than currently was this the reasoning for your expectation of west based NAO becoming more likely ? This second warming likely brings about a stronger reversal than the first and this downwells further and faster into the lower strat than we are currently seeing post first reversal. There is a second warming upcoming after the flow returns briefly to weakly positive

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